Jason Sandefur

Fastener manufacturers reported fourth-quarter orders fell, with 70% of participants recounting projections. Nearly 20% of manufacturers said Q4 orders exceeded their expectations.
More than four in 10 manufacturers reduced their workforce during 2008, while 26% added workers and 28% maintained current staffing levels. About 20% of manufacturers outsourced work instead of adding staff.
In 2009 nearly 46% of manufacturers intend to layoff workers, while 38% say they”ll maintain current staffing levels. Only 8% intend to add workers to the payroll.
The FIN Raw Material Price Index dropped to 3.4 in 2008 after rising to 3.95 the previous year. 2004 stands as the height of price volatility, when the index topped 4.7.
A slight 52% majority reported raw material price increases, while 14% saw prices stabilize and 34% reported price declines.
About five in 10 manufacturers expect raw material prices to drop in 2009, pegging their outlook at 2.5, well below the 3.87 pace predicted the previous year. Only 14% think prices will rise, while 28% see prices unchanged in 2009.
The FIN Raw Material Inventory Index dipped to 2.9 in 2008 from 3.21 in 2007. The index high of 3.7 was set in 2004, and the low was 2.6 reached in 1998 and repeated in 2001.
An overwhelming 78% of manufacturers reported steel price increases in 2008, while 2% found steel prices remained flat, and another 2% saw prices drop. The average increase for 2007 was 27.4%.
About one-third of manufacturers saw their raw material inventory remain stable, while 26% recorded inventory increases and 36% lowered their inventory in 2008.
About 46% reported difficulty obtaining raw materials during the year, compared with 54% of manufacturers who experienced no difficulty obtaining materials.
Inventory turnovers for manufacturers climbed to 4.6 from 4.44 the previous year.
After rising for three consecutive years, average operating capacity declined to 70.9%, just above 2006 levels. Manufacturers anticipate further declines, with operating capacity slipping to 65.4% in the coming months.
About 86% of manufacturers raised prices in 2008 at an average rate of 11.9%, while one in 10 kept prices unchanged and 2% cut prices during the year.
The FIN Survey found that fastener prices are likely to level off or decline in coming months. Less than 25% plan price hikes, with 28% holding the line and 38% anticipating price cuts, compared to the roughly 70% of manufacturers who foresaw price increases at the start of 2008. �2009 FastenerNews.com