The seasonally adjusted Fastener Distributor Index moderated to 54.6 in July vs. June (56.9), representing “a temporary new normal amid the pandemic,” Industrial Distribution reports. June’s figure was the index’s best reading since November 2018.

The seasonally adjusted sales index jumped 9.3 percentage points to 79.2 in July.

The Forward Looking Index continued to improve, increasing to 54.8 from 52.6 the previous month.

Employment declined 12.3 points to 44.3 in July, with supplier deliveries dipping 0.8 points to 57.1

Meanwhile, month-to-month pricing jumped 6 points to 58.6, while year-to-year pricing jumped 6.6 points to 67.1.

The July FDI reading “indicates the trajectory of sales trends is improving m/m, but activity levels are likely not yet near pre-COVID levels,” R.W. Baird analyst David Manthey wrote.

“Looking at the drivers of the m/m moderation in the FDI, sales trends continued to improve, but the employment index slightly decreased, dragging down the overall index.”

Respondent commentary remained mixed.  Only 11% of respondents expect lower activity in the coming months, up from the 28% who expressed similar expectations in May.  More than 60% anticipate higher activity, while 26% forecast similar activity.

“(I) expect activity to increase unless there is a setback with the economy relating to the virus,” one participant stated.

“Sales in July were surprisingly higher than expected and higher than June,” added another participant.  “That said, we continue to expect the line to flatten and a decrease in sales for Q3-Q4 compared to last year.”

“Vendors in US and abroad are way slower,” one participant commented.

The FDI is a monthly survey of North American fastener distributors conducted by the FCH Sourcing Network, the National Fastener Distributors Association and Baird.  Web: fdisurvey.com