“These are the ‘good ol’ days’,” economist Alan Beaulieu declared to the National Fastener Distributors Association and New England Fastener Distributors Association. “There is so much positive going on.”

Consumers are in great shape, interest rates are favorable, employment and wages are rising, banks are lending, retail sales are at record highs, housing starts are strong and commodity prices “are experiencing some upside pressure,” the president of ITR Economics said.

“The world is betting on the U.S.,” he added.

The U.S. accounts for nearly a quarter (24.7%) of the $75.278 trillion world GDP, Beaulieu pointed out. That tops China at 14.9%; Japan 6.6%; Germany 4.6%; UK 3.5%; France 3.3%; India 3%; Italy 2.5%; Brazil 2.4%; Canada 2%; Korea 1.9%; Russia and Australia at 1.7% each; Spain 1.6%; Mexico 1.4%; Indonesia 1.2%; Netherlands 1.1%; Turkey 1%; Switzerland 0.9%; Saudi Arabia 0.8%; and the rest-of-the-world 19.2%.

He cited a military example to show U.S. dominance: “The U.S. has more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world combined,” Beaulieu said.

The economy has more to do with business conditions than Washington DC, the president of ITR Economics said. “Take your eyes off of Washington,” Beaulieu advised. 

“The stock market doesn’t care about Washington,” he observed. “If you voted in the last election, it doesn’t matter.” Washington “is a lot of theater.”

Beaulieu noted “we have a recession every 10 years or so and the next will be about 2019 – though it will be mild compared with 2008.”

• Global leading indicators are also up for the OECD, five major Asian countries, Brazil, Canada, China and Japan. Mexico and India are down.

• The U.S. Industrial Production Index last peaked in 2014 and after two years of some decline, started rising again in the second half of 2016. He predicted it will continue to rise until the second half of 2018.

• Beaulieu advised companies will “need cash” in a 2019 recession. “You have about a year to sell your business,” Beaulieu said.

The next ‘great recession’ – even hitting depression levels – will come about 2030. Be prepared to payoff loans before 2030, Beaulieu forewarned.

• The U.S. Gross Domestic Product has been rising since 2009.

• U.S. fastener production follows U.S. industrial production.

• The U.S. is essentially an energy independent nation. “We have 300 years of oil and gas in the ground,” Beaulieu said. “Europe has 30 years.”

“Millennials will see oil dependency as past,” he predicted.

• Despite promises from the Trump administration to assist West Virginia, “the coal industry is going away,” Beaulieu said. Natural gas is already cheaper for energy production, he added.

• A coming problem is the aging of the U.S. population. “Somehow somebody has got to pay the bill” for a higher percent of retirees, he pointed out. “The bill doesn’t go away.”

• “Robotics will keep labor costs from ballooning.”

• Health care as a percent of GDP is increasing.

• Beaulieu noted between July 2014 and July 2015 eight states had negative net migration: California, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

• The country sending the second largest number of illegal immigrants to the U.S. is Canada. “We’re not afraid of them,” Beaulieu mentioned.

• China has three potential major economic problems: Its banking system, debt and the gender imbalance its birth restrictions is creating because parents prefer male offspring.

• Brexit will provide “a buying opportunity” for investors and the economy will continue ahead. Brazil faces numerous difficult issues and “both ‘was’ and ‘is’ the next great potential South American nation.”

• Beaulieu dismissed President Trump’s nationalism rhetoric: “Nationalism and protectionism never have a happy ending.”

• “Talent is the most important driver of a country’s ability to compete on the global stage,” Beaulieu finds. “Cost competitiveness is the second most influential driver.”

• Beaulieu advised parents to assist their young adult children in buying a house rather than helping pay off student loans. Real estate will go up in value, while the student loans are set.

• Noting many people talk about the possibility of Macy’s, JC Penney and Sears going out of business, Beaulieu suggested those are “transitions” not to worry about just as the departure of FW Woolworth and Montgomery Ward were transitions which didn’t damage the U.S. economy.

• Economic uncertainties are demographics, the German election later this year and China, Beaulieu said. Web: itreconomics.com