4/6/2009
NEWS BRIEFS
Conerly at WAFD: Prepare for the Recovery
“Be ready for the recovery,” economist Bill Conerly told the Western Association of Fastener Distributors. “The recession will come to an end.”
“Talk to people (customers) about what they need. Talk to your vendors. Talk to your bankers. Lock in financing now.”
Too many Washington observers and the news media think that an apple seed planted yesterday should be an apple tree the next day, the Lake Oswego, OR-based consultant said.
Though Conerly questions some aspects of economic stimulus programs, he said he doesn’t see any danger in the current package.
The most important key to recovery is to provide capital for business, Conerly said. “Business credit is the lubricant of the economy.”
Despite the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 8.5%, Conerly pointed out that 91.5% of those wanting to work have jobs.The problem is that consumer confidence is down and people are scared and aren’t spending their paychecks, according to Conerly. “People are saving. The money is building up. There is going to be a turnaround.”
Conerly predicted a full recovery by the middle of 2010 but added that it “may be a milder than average recovery.”Conerly noted that there is “no easy solution” to economic problems and frequently “solving one problem makes others worse.” For example encouraging home ownership and construction can create higher rental unit vacancies.
However, a 1% population growth in the U.S. yields three million more people and 1.4 million more households, Conerly pointed out.
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