The End of 2016 FIN Survey participants were nearly evenly divided on confidence in the North American economy, with a 52% majority indicating “Moderate” confidence; 27% pegging it at “High”; and 21% having “Low” confidence.

On the Global Economy, 63% rated their confidence at “Moderate,” 36% “Low” and less than 1% “High.”

 •  A year ago, a 60% majority in the 38th annual FIN Survey reported sales were up, but for 2016 only one third had higher sales, 20% sales unchanged and 47% were down. 

 •  Profits were better than sales, with 59% reporting profits increased for 2016; another 12% found profits unchanged and 29% down. The 59% figure was nearly identical to 2015’s 58% reporting profits were up. 

 •  Costs were stable, with 61% responding “unchanged”, 26% down and 13% up. For 2015, a 52% majority found costs flat or declining and 43% said costs were up moderately.

 •  Capital Expenditures: Pushing half (47%) reported 2016 capital expenditures were unchanged from 2015, while 36% invested more and 17% cut spending. A year ago, 46% reported capital expenditures were up, 34% unchanged and 15% down.

 •  Prices: Nearly half (49%) reported getting price increases during 2016 ranging from 1% to 8%.  Just over one third (34%) said fastener prices remained unchanged from 2015 and 17% had price decreases ranging from 2% to 10%. Those numbers show more fastener companies got price increases in 2016 (49%) vs. 39% in 2015.

For 2017, more FIN Survey 79% participants are forecasting price increases ranging from 2% to 5%.  Only 14% predict falling prices. Seven percent expect no change in overall pricing.

A year ago 48% predicted predicted no price gains, 41% moderately higher prices for 2016 and 9% anticipated moderate price decreases.

 • Number of Employees: A 71% majority of fastener companies did not add employees during 2016.  A total of 29% of companies participating in the End of 2016 FIN Survey reported hiring additional employees during the year, with increases from 5% to 10%.

Company pay increases in 2016 averaged 2.6% and pay hike projections during 2017 average 2.3%.

 • Political Confidence: End of 2016 FIN Survey participants expressed more confidence in the incoming White House on business issues than incoming Congress.

Almost half expressed “High” confidence in the incoming White House as 2017 begins. Another 36% rated their confidence as“Moderate” and 14% “Low.”

In contrast, half of participants rated their confidence in the incoming Congress as “Moderate” vs. 35% “High” and 15% “Low.”

The last two times there was a change in presidents, the 2017 incoming White House rates 3.5, compared with 2.3 for 2009 and 3.5 for 2001.

After the 2000 presidential election, the industry’s confidence in the incoming White House was at 3.5 – a jump from 2.6 at the end of 1999. However, the number mostly sank during the subsequent eight years, ending at 2.3 with a recession starting at the end of 2007.

After the 2008 election, the incoming White House rated 2.3 – the same rating as the outgoing administration. 

The End of 2008 FIN Survey was mostly conducted before President-elect Barack Obama visited Cardinal Fastener en route to his inauguration. 

 •  No distributors reported difficulty obtaining fasteners during 2016. Distributors reported gross margins ranging from 27% to 48% in 2016.

 •  More than 76.5% of manufacturers reported raw material inventory was unchanged at the End of 2016. The remaining manufacturers reported a moderate decrease in raw material inventory.

Manufacturers forecast operating at an average of 68% of capacity in 2017.

Steel prices rose 4% to 10% in the last six months.

 •  Personnel continues to dominate the “biggest problem” list, but more emphasized finding new staff that problems with existing people: “Hiring” or “finding good, qualified personnel.”

Other “biggest problems” included: A variety of new sales comments from “Lack of orders” to “generating new business,” manufacturing economy slow and economic uncertainty. Rather than rising prices, one participant pointed to “decreasing raw material prices resulting in price pressure.”

 •  Sampling of End of 2016 FIN Survey comments:

“We are seeing more emphasis on ‘price’ vs. total cost at the OEMs.” 

“It is very difficult to get audiences with new customers.”

“We see more demand for domestic production.”

“Unsure of what 2017 will bring.”

“Various industries are not optimistic that current production levels will be sustained.”

“Software.”

“Large customers going overseas.”

“More competition from adhesives.”

“Seeing slight increases in steel prices, moderate increases in stainless, higher increases in bronze and copper. About 3% to 7% increase in adhesives + chemicals.”

The End of 2016 FIN Survey was conducted during December 2016. The FIN Survey is informal and not designed to be a scientific survey. Surveys are sent out to FIN subscribers and is available for GlobalFastenerNews.com readers to participate in.  Responses are anonymous.

Participants ranged from companies with 5 employees to 1,800 employees; and $875,000 in fastener sales for 2016 to $660 million.