The seasonally-adjusted Fastener Distributor Index for April rose to 55.8, up from March’s 53, according to R.W. Baird analyst David Manthey.

“Sales trends rebounded nicely from weak March trends, which saw a contractionary sales reading,” Manthey writes.

Just over 50% of respondents indicated sales were better than seasonal expectations, in line with 2018 levels (55%) and above weaker YTD results (41%).

The pricing index moderated, although a majority of respondents indicated stable pricing levels vs. March.

“Customer inventory levels continue to be perceived as in line with expectations, while respondents’ inventories came down some, albeit still elevated relative to last year,” according to Manthey.

The Forward Looking Index surged m/m (52.1 vs. 46.9), returning to expansionary levels for the first time since December. Of the FLI’s components (employment index, respondent inventories, customer inventories, and six-month outlook), all but the employment index improved sequentially.

“We view the improvement in the FLI as an encouraging indicator, consistent with positive, though moderating, growth,” Manthey writes.

Hiring sentiment was relatively stable in April as hiring was in line to above seasonal expectations for nearly all fastener distributors, consistent with March results.

Respondent commentary remained cautious.

“Qualitative comments were fewer in number this month, but the tone remained somewhat cautious,” according to Manthey.

“April was still strong, but calls are definitely dropping off,” one respondent noted.

Another indicated: “A very soft April. I hope this is not the beginning of a slowdown. Hopefully just a slow month.”

The six-month outlook was more optimistic, with 51% of respondents expecting higher activity levels, 32% expecting similar activity, and 16% expecting lower activity. The percentage of respondents expecting higher activity compared favorably to 2018 averages (~49%) and YTD levels (~37%).

The FDI is a monthly survey of North American fastener distributors conducted by the FCH Sourcing Network, the National Fastener Distributors Association, and Baird. Web: fdisurvey.com